Looking Ahead – November 3, 2020

In less than two weeks we will address the issue that’s been the focus of the country and the world since 2016. There are many news reports, polls, comments and speculation regarding the next President of the United States. Our report provider, Satya Analytics, has captured data since March, 2020. Using close to a half a billion data points from almost four million individuals, it is apparent that there are some important insights to share. Most of our reports align with what the polls are showing. What’s important is that with Satya Analytics’ ability to understand the emotions behind the responses, we can provide a more definitive look at the possible outcome of this election. 

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We start with the word clouds. First Trump.

When looking at the word clouds, Trump invokes a great deal of emotional response, whereas Biden does not. While that might be what we hear in the news, the concern here is what happens after the election, especially if Trump is out. Does the passion reflect what his supporters will do if he loses?

The negative hashtags are most interesting. Attacks of Biden are either generic or related to the ‘sleepy / creepy joe’ meme, while Trump’s negative hashtags reflect more coherent and long-lived narratives such as Resist, ‘not my president’, lying, Putin’s influence, the Trump crime family, Trump the traitor etc. These tags reflect the strong emotional response that Trump elicits in all sides.

Note: The volume numbers are not absolute frequencies. They are normalized to reflect sample volumes so can be used for comparison purposes within this report.

Insights:

  • Overall protests have become unpopular and the topic engenders anger both toward protestors and extreme actions by law enforcement. The emotions of serenity and desire show support for law and order as a concept; however distrust-trust is almost neutral due to doubts over the administration’s actions.
  • Emotions toward the Administration’s pandemic response are mixed but overall negative. The net level of anger reflects some pragmatism shown over balancing controlling the virus vs. preserving the economy. Emotions toward repealing Obamacare are similarly mixed. There appears to be an appetite to find a better replacement but low trust in DC’s ability to do so. ACA needs improvement.
  • Attitudes toward immigration policy are divided, as reflected by neutral anger-acceptance and rejection-desire emotions. However, the dialog is conducted in an atmosphere of fear and distrust.

This chart shows us that:

  • Neither candidate in is positive territory for trust but Biden has 14% more trust than Trump
  • Both candidates generate a similar degree of fear
  • Trump supporters have a higher degree of confidence in their candidate
  •  A Biden presidency is desired over 32% more than Trump
  • Biden attracts more anger (Trump supporters are mean and often attack)
  • This chart shows the proportion of negative vs positive sentiment toward Biden from progressives/Sanders supporters, a group Biden needs to turn out and vote.
  • Support dips in early to mid-August before recovering. This dip coincides with the rumors and following announcement of Kamala Harris as VP.

This chart tracks the level of anger displayed by Biden supporters toward Trump and the GOP. Anger is a powerful emotion and very likely to indicate turnout. The level of anger has tripled from the beginning of August through September

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